Sean, you can expect an intercooler to half down the temperature rise at maximum power. At idle, flow throught the intercooler is much less so the temperature decrease is better as at max power.
The rise by pressure at idle is zero because there is no pressure increase, good air in to the charger is at outside termperature.
Thereby the temperature rise at idle is only done by the warm charger itself, which is not a lot at idle.
I see that after engine start, where sometimes I do have carb icing during warm up.
At all this in summary, there will be the airbox temperature at idle without an intercooler about 4 to 5°C. With intercooler you will have 1-2°C which is not sufficient the preven carb icing. Due to this in the Rotax installation manual carb heating is recommended when using an intercooler.
With the statement temperature under the hood is important, I was speaking of inlet temperature for the turbo and in this case, I obviously hab about 40-50°C air under the hood at flight close to the inlet.
But result is always: without an intercooler you usually don't have to worry. With intercooler you have to think about it.