I would suspect either a collapsed intake air hose (or filter - there was a rash of this type failure in Grumman Tigers and Cheetahs a while back - Lycoming engines), or something like others have mentioned above – perhaps an alternate air "flap" loose and blocking the intake?
If that's not it, I would check the exhaust carefully. I have not experienced this personally, but have read several stories about exhaust baffles (inside the muffler) breaking off and temporarily blocking the exhaust, then eventually either blowing out of the exhaust stack or moving around inside the muffler housing so they were no longer blocking the exhaust pipe. You (or your mechanic) will need a borescope tool to really "scope" out the muffler. Sometimes you can hear stuff rattling around if you tap on the muffler, but not always... If it's broken / loose baffles, it will happen again, and you might not be as lucky next time...
As for the "water in the air box" theory, I do not believe it would cause the symptoms you experienced. Rough running, perhaps, but sudden smooth reduction in RPM? No way! Likely not electrical either, for the same reason – it kept running smoothly at reduced RPM. That leaves fuel or air (intake or exhaust) as potential issues, but the fact that it kept running smoothly at reduced RPM makes "air" the more likely of the two...
Good hunting!